The European Commission forecasts that after the slowdown in 2023, the Polish economy will rebound in 2024 and 2025.
Accelerating GDP growth
The EC predicts real GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025 after an increase of 5.3% recorded last year.
The EC emphasizes that after the slowdown this year, economic growth is expected to accelerate in the coming years and be supported by a rebound in private consumption, further investment growth and good export results.
Inflation
The EC forecasts a decline in HICP inflation (a measure of inflation used in the EU) in Poland in 2024 to 6.2% from 11.1% in 2023 and to 3.8% in 2025.
The forecasts are based on the assumption of the phasing out of protective measures on the energy market and the departure from the zero VAT rate on food at the end of 2023, which will have an impact on price formation in the above-mentioned countries. categories in 2024. However, a clear increase in wages is expected to maintain price pressure in services at an increased level throughout the forecast horizon.
Unemployment
In terms of the labor market, the EC forecasts that the unemployment rate this year will increase slightly by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, i.e. to 3.0%, and that low unemployment will continue in the following years as well. It is expected to reach 2.8% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. Poland compares very well with other European countries in this regard, remaining for a long time a country with one of the lower unemployment rates in the EU.
Deficit of the general government sector
The Commission forecasts that in 2023 as a result of, among others, investments in defense, expenditure on social support or protective measures related to the increase in energy prices, the deficit of the general government sector will amount to 5.8 percent. GDP.
It is assumed that the economic recovery forecast for the coming years will result in the recovery of income, which, combined with the gradual withdrawal of protective measures on the energy market, will enable the sector’s deficit to be reduced to 4.6%. GDP in 2024 and 3.9 percent GDP in 2025, despite the continuation of social and investment programs.
